Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 84295.138816 88951.613644 93604.438637 98599.161836 103805.766710 109069.873728 114791.010816
2024-12-22 75857.227225 82932.113368 90198.193423 98208.067458 106779.604248 115666.669639 125566.857843
2024-12-29 71178.079732 80007.332518 89271.262832 99694.539305 111073.741383 123097.586456 136741.025024
2025-01-05 67250.466269 77383.860783 88208.746475 100597.260950 114346.369889 129101.062146 146094.786150
2025-01-12 63501.650351 74608.515375 86663.451546 100667.423848 116434.037417 133582.038866 153587.124673
2025-01-19 60162.460613 72040.790685 85120.524462 100521.116921 118084.382928 137415.553853 160224.762050
2025-01-26 58469.585988 71198.880254 85394.969967 102308.252629 121813.400475 143504.405277 169348.938201
2025-02-02 56968.169743 70462.328328 85689.839914 104030.247499 125399.073027 149387.179054 178223.021641
2025-02-09 55086.992296 69171.637796 85246.997060 104811.324271 127829.974675 153901.813238 185505.968210
2025-02-16 52864.933259 67370.719366 84111.481894 104693.018524 129138.455703 157065.369617 191191.167980
2025-02-23 51181.331386 66135.719001 83574.087133 105216.129341 131147.035949 161006.603320 197764.027990
2025-03-02 49339.655898 64630.958803 82644.407208 105206.550974 132470.654377 164107.005792 203329.473956
2025-03-09 48247.976294 64029.711987 82801.916629 106520.328660 135412.761538 169181.338631 211327.368376
2025-03-16 46359.492393 62375.683880 81622.141982 106163.048739 136309.040271 171808.072733 216421.023448
2025-03-23 45565.275557 62057.292798 82054.650221 107758.457052 139565.238448 177265.590882 224930.149921
2025-03-30 44519.752700 61376.413073 82000.440783 108722.232202 142029.805463 181764.766957 232299.416197
2025-04-06 43117.134651 60187.564202 81265.423053 108797.550865 143368.345995 184879.672335 237988.048295
2025-04-13 41686.915056 58914.105004 80379.205493 108641.964137 144387.068126 187582.617371 243166.790096
2025-04-20 41265.242976 58937.234340 81127.481309 110544.012547 147976.312360 193454.564630 252262.293486
2025-04-27 40839.916231 58934.598878 81827.521044 112376.327123 151480.101699 199236.425440 261280.831060
2025-05-04 40005.575261 58358.443840 81761.856927 113207.320612 153707.132206 203435.300019 268356.225410
2025-05-11 38806.681715 57256.308750 80978.318758 113081.459629 154693.743937 206073.992111 273489.978444
2025-05-18 37945.719514 56584.515851 80735.399508 113637.965926 156540.357830 209787.865101 279978.879962